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Red140
785839.9
837220.8
460768.4
Blue116
851625.7
702856.7
858618.7
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13610150150200140116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+20Teleop
+24Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
6Leave0
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points16
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +1
18Coral scored#19
63Coral points68
3Processor algae#3
3Net algae#2
18Processor points18
12Net points8
30Algae points26
93Total teleop94
Reef
6L4#6
6L3#7
7L2#6
5L1 · trough#3
30Game pieces#27
BargeRed +4
10Cage & park6
10Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
0Foul points0
140Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.41.0
65.466.4
Auto14.1
Teleop47.2
End7.1
red by 11.7
56.71.0
55.456.3
Auto13.0
Teleop34.6
End9.1
Second
7858
#17
39.91.4
35.136.6
Auto8.3
Teleop30.6
End1.0
red by 14.1
8516
#25
25.71.0
23.324.3
Auto3.9
Teleop16.5
End5.3
Third
8372
#23
20.81.4
18.520.0
Auto4.8
Teleop11.5
End4.5
red by 2.2
8586
#45
18.71.0
17.618.6
Auto2.5
Teleop14.2
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned75%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
46%Barge oddsMissed86%Barge oddsMissed