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Red127
825540.1
662814.7
418218.0
Blue90
448015.7
703822.9
327823.1
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7868020030040050060012790

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+25Teleop
+37Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
6Leave9
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
15Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +19
19Coral scored#11
68Coral points39
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#5
12Processor points18
16Net points20
28Algae points38
96Total teleop77
Reef
5L4#5
7L3#3
6L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
27Game pieces#19
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +37
0Foul points0
127Total score90

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8255
#11
40.13.3
33.636.8
Auto5.8
Teleop29.8
End4.5
red by 17.1
3278
#41
23.11.0
22.423.4
Auto5.0
Teleop18.0
End0.1
Second
4182
#22
18.04.7
16.821.6
Auto2.8
Teleop14.0
End1.3
blue by 4.9
7038
#24
22.91.0
20.421.4
Auto4.0
Teleop16.5
End2.3
Third
6628
#39
14.74.7
9.514.3
Auto5.8
Teleop7.0
End2.0
blue by 0.9
4480
#40
15.71.0
11.912.9
Auto2.4
Teleop10.5
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsEarned32%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsEarned16%Barge oddsMissed