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Red64
888713.4
285530.9
858618.7
Blue97
706826.4
327823.1
842234.2
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions691040501506497

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+25
Endgame+15
Fouls+33
AutonomousRed +6
6Leave9
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
15Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +31
5Coral scored#9
19Coral points32
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#5
6Processor points12
8Net points20
14Algae points32
33Total teleop64
Reef
3L4#4
1L3#1
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
10Game pieces#16
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +33
0Foul points18
64Total score97

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2855
#29
30.90.1
30.830.9
Auto5.6
Teleop18.9
End6.4
blue by 3.3
8422
#10
34.20.4
34.434.1
Auto4.8
Teleop20.1
End9.3
Second
8586
#45
18.70.1
18.618.7
Auto2.5
Teleop14.2
End1.9
blue by 7.7
7068
#33
26.40.4
26.826.4
Auto3.4
Teleop19.8
End3.2
Third
8887
#42
13.40.1
13.313.4
Auto4.5
Teleop7.0
End2.0
blue by 9.6
3278
#41
23.10.4
23.423.1
Auto5.0
Teleop18.0
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
38%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsMissed