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Red166
674929.9
327683.0
514312.8
Blue85
710336.4
416610.8
662814.7
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14258010020016685

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
+69Teleop
+81Endgame
+81Fouls
AutonomousBlue +6
9Leave9
3Coral scored#4
14Coral points20
23Total auto29
TeleoperatedRed +75
22Coral scored#7
79Coral points26
3Processor algae#2
7Net algae#3
18Processor points12
28Net points12
46Algae points24
125Total teleop50
Reef
10L4#2
8L3#4
3L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
35Game pieces#16
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +81
2Foul points2
166Total score85

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
83.02.0
80.482.5
Auto12.2
Teleop59.0
End11.8
red by 46.6
7103
#18
36.40.4
35.736.0
Auto10.1
Teleop24.5
End1.9
Second
6749
#16
29.92.7
26.529.2
Auto8.2
Teleop19.5
End2.2
red by 15.2
6628
#39
14.70.5
14.314.7
Auto5.8
Teleop7.0
End2.0
Third
5143
#36
12.82.7
10.112.8
Auto3.6
Teleop8.2
End0.9
red by 2.0
4166
#46
10.80.4
10.410.8
Auto3.5
Teleop6.3
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
52%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
56%Barge oddsEarned16%Barge oddsMissed