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Red67
220724.2
250239.5
254933.7
Blue68
363036.8
253819.0
823411.4
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions817640601001206768

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+7Teleop
+5Endgame
Fouls+1
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave9
2Coral scored#1
11Coral points4
20Total auto13
Teleoperatedlevel
10Coral scored#8
35Coral points27
0Processor algae#2
2Net algae#1
0Processor points12
8Net points4
8Algae points16
43Total teleop43
Reef
4L4#3
4L3#3
3L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#12
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points6
67Total score68

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2502
#12
39.51.0
26.125.1
Auto9.2
Teleop24.1
End6.2
red by 2.7
3630
#28
36.80.6
35.034.4
Auto10.1
Teleop21.5
End5.1
Second
2549
#22
33.71.4
22.020.6
Auto6.5
Teleop25.1
End2.1
red by 14.7
2538
#16
19.00.9
17.016.1
Auto4.8
Teleop12.9
End1.4
Third
2207
#23
24.21.4
23.021.5
Auto4.8
Teleop18.9
End0.5
red by 12.8
8234
#45
11.40.9
18.117.2
Auto3.1
Teleop7.2
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsMissed44%Barge oddsEarned