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Red183
379246.7
254933.7
621729.6
Blue190
308247.4
218132.3
857057.7
40%Model gave it60%

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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions106121050150200250183190

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+12
Teleop+9
Endgame+19
Fouls+7
AutonomousBlue +12
9Leave0
4Coral scored#8
20Coral points41
29Total auto41
TeleoperatedRed +3
25Coral scored#28
90Coral points101
4Processor algae#1
6Net algae#7
24Processor points6
24Net points28
48Algae points34
138Total teleop135
Reef
11L4#13
10L3#12
5L2#5
3L1 · trough#6
39Game pieces#44
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +7
12Foul points0
183Total score190

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.73.3
39.642.9
Auto9.4
Teleop30.2
End7.1
blue by 11.0
57.76.6
41.548.1
Auto10.2
Teleop38.9
End8.6
Second
2549
#22
33.75.5
29.434.9
Auto6.5
Teleop25.1
End2.1
blue by 13.7
47.46.6
33.540.1
Auto14.3
Teleop30.5
End2.6
Third
29.63.3
20.623.9
Auto7.6
Teleop19.8
End2.2
blue by 2.7
32.34.0
25.829.7
Auto8.0
Teleop19.2
End5.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
14%Coral oddsEarned21%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
67%Barge oddsEarned69%Barge oddsEarned