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Red206
249158.7
389143.4
857057.7
Blue210
379246.7
247243.7
388343.6
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17114250100200250206210

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
0Teleop0
+2Endgame
Fouls+4
AutonomousRed +2
0Leave3
6Coral scored#5
31Coral points26
31Total auto29
TeleoperatedBlue +2
30Coral scored#29
109Coral points105
2Processor algae#5
7Net algae#4
12Processor points30
28Net points16
40Algae points46
149Total teleop151
Reef
14L4#14
13L3#11
6L2#5
3L1 · trough#4
45Game pieces#43
BargeRed +2
26Cage & park24
26Total endgame24
Penalties & totalBlue +4
0Foul points6
206Total score210

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.70.7
54.455.1
Auto14.1
Teleop37.8
End6.7
red by 12.0
46.71.1
42.944.0
Auto9.4
Teleop30.2
End7.1
Second
57.71.0
52.053.0
Auto10.2
Teleop38.9
End8.6
red by 14.0
2472
#35
43.71.1
39.941.0
Auto4.2
Teleop36.1
End3.4
Third
3891
#24
43.41.0
37.638.6
Auto10.6
Teleop30.8
End2.1
blue by 0.2
3883
#11
43.61.1
39.740.8
Auto6.8
Teleop28.6
End8.2