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Red174
379246.7
247243.7
388343.6
Blue156
284768.9
690925.3
604550.3
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions146166050100200250300350400174156

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+29
0Teleop0
+18Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousBlue +29
0Leave0
3Coral scored#9
15Coral points44
15Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +29
25Coral scored#18
91Coral points64
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#6
18Processor points12
20Net points24
38Algae points36
129Total teleop100
Reef
8L4#7
8L3#8
7L2#6
5L1 · trough#6
36Game pieces#35
BargeRed +18
24Cage & park6
24Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +18
6Foul points6
174Total score156

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
46.70.7
44.044.7
Auto9.4
Teleop30.2
End7.1
blue by 22.1
68.90.1
68.168.0
Auto18.4
Teleop42.5
End7.9
Second
2472
#35
43.70.7
41.041.6
Auto4.2
Teleop36.1
End3.4
blue by 6.6
6045
#26
50.30.1
49.249.1
Auto7.6
Teleop39.5
End3.2
Third
3883
#11
43.60.7
40.841.5
Auto6.8
Teleop28.6
End8.2
red by 18.3
6909
#13
25.30.1
25.425.3
Auto5.5
Teleop15.6
End4.2