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Red76
218112.9
250228.6
703816.1
Blue63
388342.9
565328.3
308236.4
10%Model gave it90%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5214101002002507663

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
+7Teleop
+9Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousBlue +21
9Leave0
1Coral scored#7
7Coral points37
16Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +28
11Coral scored#4
40Coral points14
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
50Total teleop22
Reef
3L4#3
4L3#3
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#3
14Game pieces#13
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
4Foul points0
76Total score63

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.60.6
26.527.1
Auto7.5
Teleop15.6
End5.6
blue by 14.3
42.93.2
44.741.5
Auto11.4
Teleop26.7
End4.9
Second
16.10.6
15.015.7
Auto3.2
Teleop11.5
End1.4
blue by 20.2
36.43.2
37.534.3
Auto16.1
Teleop19.0
End1.2
Third
12.90.6
11.812.4
Auto7.2
Teleop3.2
End2.5
blue by 15.4
5653
#15
28.33.2
29.426.2
Auto5.7
Teleop19.5
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned52%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed24%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
55%Barge oddsMissed57%Barge oddsMissed