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Red65
217712.7
285513.3
388342.9
Blue50
249145.3
218112.9
565328.3
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions891470502002503006550

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+29Teleop
+15Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave9
1Coral scored#0
4Coral points0
13Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +25
9Coral scored#5
32Coral points19
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
6Processor points6
12Net points0
18Algae points6
50Total teleop25
Reef
3L4#2
3L3#1
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +14
2Cage & park16
2Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
0Foul points0
65Total score50

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.91.5
43.141.6
Auto11.4
Teleop26.7
End4.9
blue by 2.3
45.35.1
60.655.5
Auto10.1
Teleop27.9
End7.3
Second
2855
#14
13.31.5
19.317.8
Auto4.2
Teleop7.7
End1.4
blue by 15.0
5653
#15
28.35.1
43.838.7
Auto5.7
Teleop19.5
End3.1
Third
2177
#13
12.71.5
25.524.0
Auto2.1
Teleop10.5
End0.1
blue by 0.2
12.95.1
21.916.8
Auto7.2
Teleop3.2
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsMissed92%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
63%Barge oddsMissed44%Barge oddsEarned