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Red127
460767.3
453633.5
250230.1
Blue144
298747.7
247033.7
308254.1
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions151154130135140145160165127144

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+25
Endgame+23
Fouls+17
AutonomousBlue +21
6Leave3
3Coral scored#8
17Coral points41
23Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +4
16Coral scored#16
58Coral points58
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
12Processor points12
12Net points16
24Algae points28
82Total teleop86
Reef
6L4#8
7L3#7
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#5
24Game pieces#30
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +17
6Foul points0
127Total score144

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
67.31.9
68.867.0
Auto18.1
Teleop42.6
End6.6
red by 13.2
54.10.5
51.450.9
Auto15.2
Teleop37.4
End1.5
Second
4536
#18
33.51.9
34.232.3
Auto3.4
Teleop28.1
End2.0
blue by 14.3
47.70.5
48.748.2
Auto14.5
Teleop27.5
End5.8
Third
2502
#16
30.11.9
34.933.0
Auto6.5
Teleop19.5
End4.0
blue by 3.6
2470
#15
33.70.5
40.339.8
Auto7.8
Teleop21.3
End4.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
22%Coral oddsMissed56%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
87%Barge oddsEarned61%Barge oddsEarned