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Red122
218121.9
308254.1
419832.7
Blue32
36108.8
310044.7
340717.1
87%Model gave it13%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1277505010015020012232

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+64Teleop
+72Endgame
+90Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
3Leave6
5Coral scored#0
27Coral points0
30Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +40
11Coral scored#4
38Coral points16
1Processor algae#0
4Net algae#1
6Processor points0
16Net points4
22Algae points4
60Total teleop20
Reef
8L4#2
3L3#1
2L2#1
3L1 · trough#0
21Game pieces#5
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +90
18Foul points0
122Total score32

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.10.4
50.650.2
Auto15.2
Teleop37.4
End1.5
red by 9.3
3100
#28
44.72.9
45.442.5
Auto3.1
Teleop37.4
End4.3
Second
4198
#10
32.70.4
33.733.3
Auto4.5
Teleop20.3
End7.9
red by 15.6
3407
#21
17.12.9
19.516.6
Auto4.5
Teleop11.0
End1.7
Third
2181
#17
21.90.4
25.425.1
Auto7.8
Teleop9.6
End4.4
red by 13.1
3610
#26
8.82.9
11.08.1
Auto2.9
Teleop3.7
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
29%Coral oddsMissed22%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsEarned38%Barge oddsMissed