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Red190
205263.7
310044.7
308254.1
Blue169
298747.7
253069.6
318428.7
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions164146050100200250300190169

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+33Teleop
+21Endgame
+21Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave9
7Coral scored#4
34Coral points21
37Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +26
30Coral scored#22
109Coral points79
3Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
18Processor points18
12Net points16
30Algae points34
139Total teleop113
Reef
12L4#11
9L3#8
8L2#4
8L1 · trough#3
43Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +21
0Foul points0
190Total score169

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
63.70.9
58.759.6
Auto11.5
Teleop43.3
End8.9
blue by 5.9
69.60.7
66.767.4
Auto15.3
Teleop45.9
End8.4
Second
54.10.9
50.851.7
Auto15.2
Teleop37.4
End1.5
red by 6.3
47.70.7
44.845.5
Auto14.5
Teleop27.5
End5.8
Third
3100
#28
44.70.9
39.840.7
Auto3.1
Teleop37.4
End4.3
red by 16.1
3184
#14
28.70.7
25.726.4
Auto3.1
Teleop23.2
End2.4