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Red176
222537.3
305841.4
472871.5
Blue152
329756.0
613232.6
400950.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16816250100200250300176152

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+14Teleop
+24Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
5Coral scored#5
26Coral points23
29Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +11
26Coral scored#21
95Coral points74
3Processor algae#2
2Net algae#6
18Processor points12
8Net points24
26Algae points36
121Total teleop110
Reef
10L4#9
10L3#6
6L2#6
5L1 · trough#5
36Game pieces#34
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
0Foul points0
176Total score152

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4728
#10
71.51.1
71.072.0
Auto10.4
Teleop49.7
End11.4
red by 15.5
3297
#20
56.00.1
56.756.5
Auto9.8
Teleop38.9
End7.3
Second
3058
#32
41.41.1
43.144.1
Auto9.4
Teleop24.3
End7.7
blue by 9.5
4009
#30
50.80.1
52.852.7
Auto11.0
Teleop37.2
End2.6
Third
2225
#25
37.31.3
28.029.3
Auto6.4
Teleop23.5
End7.5
red by 4.8
6132
#27
32.60.2
29.028.8
Auto5.2
Teleop22.3
End5.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
32%Coral oddsMissed17%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned72%Barge oddsEarned