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Red150
205272.1
298752.3
331349.9
Blue166
400950.8
702869.2
565348.5
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions190190150160170180200210220230150166

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
Teleop+6
Endgame+16
Fouls+16
AutonomousRed +28
0Leave6
9Coral scored#2
44Coral points10
44Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +34
21Coral scored#25
76Coral points90
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#4
6Processor points18
8Net points16
14Algae points34
90Total teleop124
Reef
15L4#11
8L3#8
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#34
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
0Foul points0
150Total score166

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.12.0
73.571.4
Auto10.2
Teleop52.7
End9.3
red by 2.9
69.20.6
68.768.1
Auto12.0
Teleop45.9
End11.2
Second
2987
#26
52.32.0
51.649.6
Auto15.3
Teleop30.8
End6.2
red by 1.5
4009
#30
50.80.6
54.153.4
Auto11.0
Teleop37.2
End2.6
Third
3313
#36
49.92.0
52.150.1
Auto16.2
Teleop27.0
End6.7
red by 1.4
5653
#28
48.50.6
49.949.3
Auto7.1
Teleop37.5
End3.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned90%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
66%Coral oddsMissed34%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsEarned