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Red193
327688.4
613232.6
591373.1
Blue182
725773.0
702869.2
331349.9
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions209210180190200220230240250193182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+11Teleop
+11Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
3Leave3
4Coral scored#7
20Coral points34
23Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +25
32Coral scored#23
116Coral points81
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#5
12Processor points18
16Net points20
28Algae points38
144Total teleop119
Reef
14L4#11
11L3#7
6L2#7
5L1 · trough#5
42Game pieces#38
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points0
193Total score182

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
88.40.2
88.188.2
Auto11.2
Teleop65.5
End11.8
red by 15.5
7257
#15
73.00.8
73.572.7
Auto13.0
Teleop50.1
End9.8
Second
5913
#34
73.10.2
70.270.4
Auto11.9
Teleop49.9
End11.3
red by 3.9
69.20.8
69.268.4
Auto12.0
Teleop45.9
End11.2
Third
6132
#27
32.60.2
32.432.6
Auto5.2
Teleop22.3
End5.1
blue by 17.3
3313
#36
49.90.8
50.749.9
Auto16.2
Teleop27.0
End6.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
64%Coral oddsMissed58%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned97%Barge oddsEarned