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Red164
702869.2
460780.9
613232.6
Blue118
247245.4
248035.7
754146.6
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19912750100150250300164118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+54Teleop
+46Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave9
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points10
30Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +43
23Coral scored#17
84Coral points61
3Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
18Processor points6
16Net points8
34Algae points14
118Total teleop75
Reef
9L4#6
8L3#6
7L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#22
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +46
0Foul points0
164Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
80.91.2
77.676.4
Auto18.3
Teleop54.0
End8.7
red by 34.3
7541
#18
46.61.3
43.542.2
Auto6.8
Teleop31.6
End8.2
Second
69.21.2
65.464.2
Auto12.0
Teleop45.9
End11.2
red by 23.8
2472
#21
45.41.0
43.742.8
Auto6.8
Teleop37.1
End1.5
Third
6132
#27
32.61.6
30.629.0
Auto5.2
Teleop22.3
End5.1
blue by 3.1
2480
#33
35.71.2
37.035.8
Auto9.1
Teleop17.2
End9.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
30%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned84%Barge oddsEarned