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Red265
725773.0
327688.4
253081.3
Blue232
460780.9
591373.1
205272.1
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions254228150200300265232

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+21Teleop
+31Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave0
10Coral scored#9
51Coral points44
51Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +14
38Coral scored#30
138Coral points108
3Processor algae#5
5Net algae#6
18Processor points30
20Net points24
38Algae points54
176Total teleop162
Reef
18L4#16
18L3#8
6L2#11
6L1 · trough#4
56Game pieces#50
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +33
2Foul points0
265Total score232

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
88.40.5
88.288.6
Auto11.2
Teleop65.5
End11.8
red by 7.5
80.90.3
78.478.7
Auto18.3
Teleop54.0
End8.7
Second
81.30.5
81.081.5
Auto17.8
Teleop52.9
End10.6
red by 8.2
5913
#34
73.10.3
70.670.9
Auto11.9
Teleop49.9
End11.3
Third
7257
#15
73.00.5
72.773.1
Auto13.0
Teleop50.1
End9.8
red by 0.8
72.10.3
69.669.9
Auto10.2
Teleop52.7
End9.3