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Red202
319770.1
205268.1
419837.2
Blue145
253073.0
614760.5
248037.0
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions185182120140160200220240260202145

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+18
+37Teleop
+57Endgame
+57Fouls
AutonomousBlue +18
3Leave6
7Coral scored#10
37Coral points52
40Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +55
19Coral scored#14
70Coral points49
4Processor algae#1
8Net algae#4
24Processor points6
32Net points16
56Algae points22
126Total teleop71
Reef
11L4#6
7L3#6
6L2#6
2L1 · trough#6
38Game pieces#29
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +57
0Foul points0
202Total score145

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.10.6
69.369.8
Auto16.9
Teleop46.4
End6.7
blue by 2.9
73.00.7
73.572.9
Auto16.9
Teleop44.6
End11.5
Second
68.10.6
67.367.9
Auto12.0
Teleop44.8
End11.3
red by 7.6
60.50.7
61.160.4
Auto18.3
Teleop35.5
End6.7
Third
4198
#27
37.20.6
36.336.9
Auto6.4
Teleop22.2
End8.7
red by 0.2
2480
#18
37.00.8
37.636.8
Auto8.9
Teleop21.3
End6.8