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Red115
320647.1
527832.2
247047.8
Blue30
727313.5
462449.2
375117.9
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10210140608012011530

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+75Teleop
+85Endgame
+85Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave6
3Coral scored#2
14Coral points10
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +68
16Coral scored#2
56Coral points8
2Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
12Processor points0
8Net points0
20Algae points0
76Total teleop8
Reef
7L4#1
7L3#1
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
23Game pieces#4
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +85
0Foul points0
115Total score30

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
47.81.5
39.441.0
Auto6.2
Teleop36.5
End5.1
blue by 1.3
49.24.1
44.640.5
Auto10.3
Teleop35.6
End3.3
Second
3206
#16
47.11.9
29.931.8
Auto9.5
Teleop32.5
End5.1
red by 29.2
3751
#17
17.96.8
23.016.2
Auto4.7
Teleop11.1
End2.1
Third
5278
#19
32.22.6
16.619.2
Auto4.2
Teleop21.6
End6.4
red by 18.8
7273
#44
13.56.8
18.211.4
Auto3.4
Teleop9.5
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned59%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
21%Barge oddsEarned25%Barge oddsMissed