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Red132
614760.5
469329.5
527113.9
Blue102
727313.5
247047.8
217725.5
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions96830204060120140160132102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+22Teleop
+30Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave0
4Coral scored#3
21Coral points16
30Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +8
21Coral scored#13
74Coral points48
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#5
6Processor points12
8Net points20
14Algae points32
88Total teleop80
Reef
9L4#6
8L3#4
6L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
28Game pieces#23
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
0Foul points0
132Total score102

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6147
#3Sur
60.52.6
48.050.6
Auto18.3
Teleop35.5
End6.7
red by 12.7
47.81.0
41.042.0
Auto6.2
Teleop36.5
End5.1
Second
4693
#37
29.52.3
22.624.9
Auto4.6
Teleop21.6
End3.3
red by 4.0
2177
#34
25.51.1
17.818.9
Auto3.8
Teleop21.3
End0.4
Third
5271
#36
13.92.6
9.712.3
Auto4.0
Teleop8.7
End1.3
red by 0.5
7273
#44Sur
13.51.7
11.413.1
Auto3.4
Teleop9.5
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
51%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed