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Red116
217537.4
453640.1
527832.2
Blue122
248037.0
298743.4
878713.4
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9182050150200250116122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+8
Endgame+6
Fouls+6
AutonomousBlue +14
9Leave3
0Coral scored#4
0Coral points20
9Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +6
18Coral scored#12
63Coral points43
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#6
12Processor points18
16Net points24
28Algae points42
91Total teleop85
Reef
5L4#8
6L3#3
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
24Game pieces#25
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +6
0Foul points0
116Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4536
#28
40.11.9
35.237.1
Auto5.0
Teleop33.3
End1.8
blue by 3.3
2987
#14
43.42.7
34.136.8
Auto8.7
Teleop32.4
End2.3
Second
2175
#38
37.42.9
24.227.1
Auto9.5
Teleop26.1
End1.7
red by 0.4
2480
#18
37.04.0
21.225.2
Auto8.9
Teleop21.3
End6.8
Third
5278
#19
32.22.9
19.222.1
Auto4.2
Teleop21.6
End6.4
red by 18.9
8787
#41
13.44.0
19.123.1
Auto4.3
Teleop7.4
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
51%Auto oddsMissed55%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
20%Barge oddsEarned25%Barge oddsEarned