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Red161
591360.4
305511.6
319770.1
Blue118
313051.6
375117.9
310051.4
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13610050150200161118

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+33Teleop
+43Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave3
5Coral scored#2
23Coral points9
23Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +22
23Coral scored#17
82Coral points60
1Processor algae#3
6Net algae#3
6Processor points18
24Net points12
30Algae points30
112Total teleop90
Reef
10L4#5
8L3#7
4L2#4
6L1 · trough#3
35Game pieces#25
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
0Foul points0
161Total score118

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.12.6
61.363.9
Auto16.9
Teleop46.4
End6.7
red by 18.5
51.61.4
38.840.3
Auto6.1
Teleop34.9
End10.6
Second
5913
#13
60.42.8
51.254.0
Auto11.5
Teleop40.1
End8.8
red by 9.0
51.41.6
41.342.9
Auto6.4
Teleop36.2
End8.8
Third
3055
#43
11.62.8
10.113.0
Auto0.9
Teleop8.9
End1.9
blue by 6.2
3751
#17
17.92.4
16.218.6
Auto4.7
Teleop11.1
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
18%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
81%Barge oddsEarned76%Barge oddsEarned