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Red119
313051.6
304220.9
462449.2
Blue58
375117.9
419837.2
260615.8
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1077202040608012014016011958

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+59Teleop
+57Endgame
+61Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave0
5Coral scored#2
23Coral points9
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +45
17Coral scored#7
62Coral points25
2Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
12Processor points0
4Net points8
16Algae points8
78Total teleop33
Reef
8L4#4
7L3#2
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
25Game pieces#11
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +61
4Foul points0
119Total score58

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.61.3
40.341.5
Auto6.1
Teleop34.9
End10.6
red by 14.4
4198
#27
37.20.9
28.727.8
Auto6.4
Teleop22.2
End8.7
Second
49.21.3
42.443.7
Auto10.3
Teleop35.6
End3.3
red by 31.3
3751
#17
17.91.5
18.617.1
Auto4.7
Teleop11.1
End2.1
Third
3042
#22
20.91.3
10.812.1
Auto5.4
Teleop13.9
End1.5
red by 5.1
2606
#46
15.81.5
21.119.6
Auto3.8
Teleop11.2
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
66%Auto oddsEarned66%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
22%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsEarned49%Barge oddsEarned