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Red152
417455.9
591360.4
543434.6
Blue67
878713.4
419837.2
527832.2
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1326505010015020015267

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+38Auto
+75Teleop
+89Endgame
+85Fouls
AutonomousRed +38
6Leave6
8Coral scored#0
38Coral points0
44Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +37
12Coral scored#8
42Coral points27
2Processor algae#1
7Net algae#3
12Processor points6
28Net points12
40Algae points18
82Total teleop45
Reef
6L4#3
7L3#3
5L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
29Game pieces#12
BargeRed +14
26Cage & park12
26Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +85
0Foul points4
152Total score67

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5913
#13
60.42.6
42.945.5
Auto11.5
Teleop40.1
End8.8
red by 23.2
4198
#27
37.21.1
27.926.9
Auto6.4
Teleop22.2
End8.7
Second
55.92.6
41.844.4
Auto13.3
Teleop33.6
End9.0
red by 23.6
5278
#19
32.21.4
18.016.6
Auto4.2
Teleop21.6
End6.4
Third
5434
#24
34.63.2
27.130.3
Auto9.1
Teleop17.0
End8.4
red by 21.2
8787
#41
13.41.4
18.216.8
Auto4.3
Teleop7.4
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned47%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsEarned9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
63%Barge oddsEarned46%Barge oddsMissed