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Red125
453640.1
369131.8
15932.6
Blue171
247047.8
313051.6
212964.3
9%Model gave it91%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10716550150200250125171

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+44
Endgame+46
Fouls+46
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave3
2Coral scored#4
10Coral points20
16Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +37
21Coral scored#24
77Coral points88
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#8
6Processor points12
12Net points32
18Algae points44
95Total teleop132
Reef
10L4#8
4L3#9
5L2#6
4L1 · trough#5
27Game pieces#38
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +46
0Foul points0
125Total score171

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4536
#28
40.11.2
37.238.3
Auto5.0
Teleop33.3
End1.8
blue by 24.2
2129
#20
64.31.0
55.256.2
Auto19.1
Teleop44.2
End1.1
Second
159
#15
32.61.2
34.235.4
Auto4.6
Teleop18.8
End9.1
blue by 19.0
51.61.0
44.245.3
Auto6.1
Teleop34.9
End10.6
Third
3691
#26
31.81.2
27.128.3
Auto4.0
Teleop24.6
End3.2
blue by 16.0
47.81.0
44.945.9
Auto6.2
Teleop36.5
End5.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsEarned36%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
80%Barge oddsEarned51%Barge oddsEarned