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Red158
414372.0
999625.0
493121.6
Blue128
940151.8
120829.5
421334.4
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions134131100120140160180158128

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+5Auto
+22Teleop
+24Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +5
9Leave3
7Coral scored#7
33Coral points34
42Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +17
19Coral scored#15
70Coral points55
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
12Processor points6
12Net points16
24Algae points22
94Total teleop77
Reef
11L4#9
6L3#8
3L2#3
6L1 · trough#2
31Game pieces#27
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +30
6Foul points0
158Total score128

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.00.8
70.771.5
Auto18.1
Teleop49.7
End4.3
red by 20.2
51.80.2
51.651.8
Auto14.0
Teleop31.4
End6.4
Second
25.01.3
22.824.1
Auto6.0
Teleop12.6
End6.1
blue by 9.4
4213
#13
34.40.2
34.134.4
Auto10.3
Teleop23.8
End0.2
Third
4931
#23
21.60.8
20.321.1
Auto3.7
Teleop10.9
End7.1
blue by 7.8
1208
#19
29.50.2
29.229.5
Auto5.6
Teleop19.5
End4.4