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Red105
328443.3
512632.4
580160.1
Blue29
176923.8
180611.2
591820.2
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13947010015020010529

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+74Teleop
+76Endgame
+76Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
0Leave6
4Coral scored#0
19Coral points0
19Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +61
16Coral scored#3
56Coral points11
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
12Processor points0
12Net points8
24Algae points8
80Total teleop19
Reef
9L4#1
3L3#1
5L2#1
3L1 · trough#0
25Game pieces#5
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +76
0Foul points0
105Total score29

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.10.7
46.245.6
Auto10.9
Teleop42.1
End7.1
red by 36.4
1769
#20
23.81.5
22.120.6
Auto4.6
Teleop17.6
End1.6
Second
3284
#12
43.30.7
41.340.7
Auto6.5
Teleop35.1
End1.6
red by 23.1
5918
#27
20.22.5
18.415.9
Auto2.6
Teleop16.1
End1.5
Third
5126
#18
32.40.7
27.426.7
Auto5.3
Teleop25.2
End1.9
red by 21.2
1806
#36
11.21.5
11.29.6
Auto1.5
Teleop6.6
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
62%Barge oddsMissed44%Barge oddsMissed