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Red132
509833.7
596837.4
555039.0
Blue108
328443.3
199730.3
942833.4
27%Model gave it73%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions80104050150132108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+12Teleop
+24Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave3
2Coral scored#2
10Coral points9
16Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +8
21Coral scored#17
74Coral points62
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
12Processor points12
16Net points20
28Algae points32
102Total teleop94
Reef
10L4#9
7L3#5
4L2#2
2L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#26
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
0Foul points0
132Total score108

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5550
#17
39.05.7
19.925.6
Auto7.7
Teleop28.0
End3.3
blue by 4.2
3284
#12
43.30.7
38.739.3
Auto6.5
Teleop35.1
End1.6
Second
37.43.4
26.730.1
Auto10.0
Teleop23.8
End3.6
red by 4.0
9428
#19
33.40.7
28.028.6
Auto4.9
Teleop25.4
End3.1
Third
5098
#15
33.73.4
29.132.5
Auto5.1
Teleop22.6
End5.9
red by 3.4
1997
#23
30.30.7
25.326.0
Auto3.6
Teleop25.9
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed