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Red115
580160.1
173055.5
180218.2
Blue46
962619.6
425635.5
706418.7
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions149755010020011546

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+65Teleop
+73Endgame
+69Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave9
5Coral scored#0
23Coral points0
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +51
14Coral scored#5
52Coral points19
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
12Processor points6
12Net points0
24Algae points6
76Total teleop25
Reef
6L4#2
4L3#2
5L2#1
4L1 · trough#0
24Game pieces#6
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +69
2Foul points6
115Total score46

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.11.7
49.948.3
Auto10.9
Teleop42.1
End7.1
red by 24.7
35.53.0
39.136.1
Auto7.7
Teleop21.5
End6.3
Second
55.51.7
60.358.6
Auto12.4
Teleop34.8
End8.4
red by 36.0
9626
#25
19.64.9
22.918.0
Auto0.9
Teleop16.4
End2.3
Third
1802
#26
18.22.8
21.618.8
Auto2.0
Teleop15.0
End1.2
blue by 0.4
7064
#11
18.74.9
17.212.3
Auto3.5
Teleop11.9
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned48%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
21%Coral oddsEarned5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned59%Barge oddsMissed