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Red100
684320.0
580944.9
180611.2
Blue76
162223.5
176923.8
180218.2
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions777305010015020025010076

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+5
0Teleop0
+12Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousBlue +5
6Leave6
1Coral scored#2
7Coral points12
13Total auto18
TeleoperatedRed +5
11Coral scored#8
39Coral points30
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
6Processor points6
12Net points16
18Algae points22
57Total teleop52
Reef
4L4#4
4L3#3
3L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
16Game pieces#15
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
14Foul points2
100Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
44.91.1
39.940.9
Auto8.8
Teleop33.9
End2.2
red by 21.1
1769
#20
23.80.5
26.126.6
Auto4.6
Teleop17.6
End1.6
Second
6843
#22
20.01.1
19.520.6
Auto3.7
Teleop10.5
End5.7
blue by 3.5
1622
#30
23.50.5
21.522.0
Auto5.2
Teleop16.3
End1.9
Third
1806
#36
11.21.1
10.411.5
Auto1.5
Teleop6.6
End3.1
blue by 7.0
1802
#26
18.20.7
18.819.5
Auto2.0
Teleop15.0
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
49%Auto oddsMissed54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsEarned35%Barge oddsMissed