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Red59
526840.0
198214.2
706418.7
Blue79
942833.4
445516.4
245729.6
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8081601001205979

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+16
Endgame+18
Fouls+20
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points6
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +19
7Coral scored#10
25Coral points36
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
6Processor points6
4Net points12
10Algae points18
35Total teleop54
Reef
2L4#3
3L3#4
1L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
10Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +2
12Cage & park14
12Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +20
0Foul points2
59Total score79

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5268
#24
40.01.0
39.938.8
Auto6.2
Teleop28.3
End5.5
red by 6.6
9428
#19
33.40.2
32.032.2
Auto4.9
Teleop25.4
End3.1
Second
7064
#11
18.71.4
20.118.8
Auto3.5
Teleop11.9
End3.3
blue by 10.9
29.60.2
28.128.3
Auto3.3
Teleop23.6
End2.6
Third
1982
#34
14.21.4
14.513.1
Auto3.1
Teleop8.4
End2.7
blue by 2.2
4455
#32
16.40.2
13.413.6
Auto4.7
Teleop7.4
End4.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
36%Auto oddsEarned64%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
62%Barge oddsMissed15%Barge oddsEarned