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Red139
171041.8
175661.8
199719.9
Blue28
193926.6
81129.8
178520.8
100%Model gave it0%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13653010015013928

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+95Teleop
+105Endgame
+111Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave9
2Coral scored#0
10Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +88
22Coral scored#3
79Coral points11
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
12Processor points0
12Net points4
24Algae points4
103Total teleop15
Reef
11L4#1
6L3#1
4L2#1
3L1 · trough#0
29Game pieces#4
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +111
6Foul points0
139Total score28

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.81.8
59.561.3
Auto7.7
Teleop45.4
End8.7
red by 35.2
1939
#24
26.62.9
21.218.3
Auto5.0
Teleop20.5
End1.1
Second
41.81.8
36.438.3
Auto9.7
Teleop31.6
End0.5
red by 21.0
1785
#15
20.82.9
23.420.4
Auto5.1
Teleop13.6
End2.1
Third
1997
#18
19.91.8
19.321.2
Auto4.9
Teleop14.4
End0.6
red by 10.1
8112
#31
9.82.9
11.88.9
Auto4.4
Teleop2.3
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
17%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
48%Barge oddsEarned24%Barge oddsMissed