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Red156
452256.8
596821.5
175661.8
Blue89
464643.6
178520.8
193926.6
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions154915020015689

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+53Teleop
+63Endgame
+67Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave6
6Coral scored#3
30Coral points17
33Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +43
19Coral scored#14
67Coral points50
4Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
24Processor points6
16Net points8
40Algae points14
107Total teleop64
Reef
9L4#6
9L3#4
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
33Game pieces#20
BargeRed +10
12Cage & park2
12Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +67
4Foul points0
156Total score89

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.80.3
61.661.9
Auto7.7
Teleop45.4
End8.7
red by 18.2
43.60.1
43.643.6
Auto10.8
Teleop27.6
End5.2
Second
56.80.3
56.556.8
Auto9.6
Teleop43.2
End3.9
red by 30.2
1939
#24
26.60.1
26.626.6
Auto5.0
Teleop20.5
End1.1
Third
5968
#16
21.50.3
21.221.5
Auto7.3
Teleop13.5
End0.6
red by 0.6
1785
#15
20.80.1
20.920.8
Auto5.1
Teleop13.6
End2.1