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Red111
235733.3
512626.7
299649.4
Blue114
180612.4
16745.5
580931.2
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11190406080100120140160111114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+5
+5Endgame
Fouls+3
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave9
4Coral scored#3
20Coral points17
23Total auto26
TeleoperatedBlue +2
16Coral scored#17
56Coral points60
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
12Processor points6
8Net points12
20Algae points18
76Total teleop78
Reef
7L4#5
6L3#7
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#24
BargeRed +10
12Cage & park2
12Total endgame2
Penalties & totalBlue +3
0Foul points8
111Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.40.1
47.447.5
Auto11.9
Teleop31.2
End6.3
red by 3.9
167
#5
45.50.4
44.945.3
Auto14.0
Teleop29.8
End1.6
Second
2357
#14
33.30.1
31.331.4
Auto9.1
Teleop21.5
End2.6
red by 2.0
5809
#11
31.20.4
30.731.1
Auto5.7
Teleop23.6
End1.9
Third
5126
#22
26.70.1
24.724.8
Auto4.0
Teleop20.8
End1.9
red by 14.3
1806
#20
12.40.4
11.812.2
Auto2.6
Teleop7.1
End2.6