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Red124
464643.6
171041.8
193926.6
Blue104
882518.9
198742.3
271831.2
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12498406080140160180124104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+32Teleop
+22Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave6
5Coral scored#2
24Coral points10
30Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +18
20Coral scored#15
72Coral points54
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
12Processor points12
8Net points8
20Algae points20
92Total teleop74
Reef
11L4#4
7L3#7
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
29Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +10
2Cage & park12
2Total endgame12
Penalties & totalRed +20
0Foul points2
124Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.60.3
43.543.8
Auto10.8
Teleop27.6
End5.2
red by 1.3
42.30.2
42.342.5
Auto10.0
Teleop25.1
End7.2
Second
41.80.3
41.742.0
Auto9.7
Teleop31.6
End0.5
red by 10.6
2718
#10
31.20.2
31.231.5
Auto7.1
Teleop21.4
End2.7
Third
1939
#24
26.60.3
26.526.8
Auto5.0
Teleop20.5
End1.1
red by 7.7
8825
#23
18.90.2
18.919.1
Auto2.6
Teleop14.7
End1.6