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Red191
540155.4
1014328.6
260781.4
Blue185
140349.3
121865.9
19339.8
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions173143100200250191185

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
+10Teleop
+4Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousBlue +21
6Leave6
5Coral scored#10
27Coral points48
33Total auto54
TeleoperatedRed +31
25Coral scored#20
90Coral points73
3Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
18Processor points12
24Net points16
42Algae points28
132Total teleop101
Reef
13L4#13
5L3#6
5L2#8
7L1 · trough#3
39Game pieces#36
BargeBlue +6
24Cage & park30
24Total endgame30
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
2Foul points0
191Total score185

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.41.9
74.776.6
Auto19.2
Teleop50.4
End11.7
red by 15.4
65.93.0
58.461.3
Auto19.7
Teleop37.1
End9.1
Second
5401
#25
55.41.9
51.553.4
Auto7.7
Teleop41.7
End6.0
red by 6.1
1403
#29
49.33.0
42.645.6
Auto14.1
Teleop29.1
End6.0
Third
28.61.9
28.630.5
Auto5.9
Teleop20.3
End2.5
blue by 11.1
193
#48
39.83.0
34.137.1
Auto7.9
Teleop27.0
End4.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
78%Coral oddsMissed38%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
55%Barge oddsEarned83%Barge oddsEarned