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Red187
167659.6
901556.9
741447.4
Blue177
34180.3
32147.9
363751.3
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions166193100150250187177

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
0Teleop0
+10Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave9
10Coral scored#6
48Coral points28
51Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +14
18Coral scored#18
64Coral points64
2Processor algae#5
6Net algae#5
12Processor points30
24Net points20
36Algae points50
100Total teleop114
Reef
11L4#11
6L3#5
6L2#5
5L1 · trough#3
36Game pieces#34
BargeRed +10
36Cage & park26
36Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
0Foul points0
187Total score177

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1676
#16
59.62.1
56.058.1
Auto14.6
Teleop37.0
End8.0
blue by 20.7
341
#1
80.30.1
80.180.2
Auto13.6
Teleop56.9
End9.8
Second
9015
#34
56.92.1
54.756.8
Auto12.7
Teleop39.2
End5.0
red by 5.7
3637
#33
51.30.1
49.049.0
Auto11.0
Teleop32.0
End8.3
Third
7414
#28
47.42.1
44.446.5
Auto9.1
Teleop32.3
End6.0
blue by 0.5
321
#38
47.90.1
46.846.9
Auto15.9
Teleop26.7
End5.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned93%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
57%Coral oddsEarned55%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
60%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsEarned