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Red122
253970.3
19339.8
437346.9
Blue152
1015722.5
36569.4
29343.3
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions166128100150200250122152

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
Teleop+14
Endgame+32
Fouls+30
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave9
8Coral scored#6
38Coral points28
44Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +21
12Coral scored#18
44Coral points63
3Processor algae#2
2Net algae#4
18Processor points12
8Net points16
26Algae points28
70Total teleop91
Reef
7L4#7
6L3#7
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#6
25Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +18
6Cage & park24
6Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +30
2Foul points0
122Total score152

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2539
#10
70.31.8
70.969.2
Auto16.2
Teleop45.2
End8.9
red by 0.9
365
#4
69.42.2
58.760.8
Auto13.7
Teleop47.2
End8.5
Second
4373
#18
46.91.8
40.538.8
Auto11.4
Teleop30.1
End5.5
red by 3.6
293
#45
43.32.2
40.843.0
Auto13.0
Teleop21.0
End9.3
Third
193
#48
39.81.8
34.833.0
Auto7.9
Teleop27.0
End4.8
red by 17.3
22.52.2
19.721.9
Auto5.9
Teleop12.0
End4.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
78%Coral oddsEarned25%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsMissed91%Barge oddsEarned