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Red158
568434.2
436126.2
192364.5
Blue105
2537.9
5638.1
245824.8
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions125114050150200250300350158105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+37Teleop
+59Endgame
+53Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave9
7Coral scored#1
33Coral points7
33Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +20
18Coral scored#15
65Coral points53
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
12Processor points12
24Net points16
36Algae points28
101Total teleop81
Reef
11L4#5
4L3#5
6L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
33Game pieces#22
BargeRed +22
24Cage & park2
24Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +53
0Foul points6
158Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
64.52.9
56.459.4
Auto20.8
Teleop42.0
End1.6
red by 26.4
56
#51
38.10.2
37.837.6
Auto6.6
Teleop30.1
End1.3
Second
5684
#35
34.22.9
24.527.4
Auto8.4
Teleop17.1
End8.6
blue by 3.7
25
#41
37.90.2
34.434.2
Auto5.8
Teleop29.4
End2.6
Third
4361
#54
26.22.9
24.127.0
Auto7.1
Teleop11.0
End8.2
red by 1.4
2458
#49
24.80.2
22.622.3
Auto4.9
Teleop16.3
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned62%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
18%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned38%Barge oddsEarned