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Red174
48460.4
465338.4
116848.9
Blue175
140349.3
331480.3
55552.4
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions141170100200250174175

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
Teleop+13
Endgame+1
Fouls+1
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave6
8Coral scored#6
42Coral points31
51Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +27
19Coral scored#26
69Coral points94
1Processor algae#2
3Net algae#2
6Processor points12
12Net points8
18Algae points20
87Total teleop114
Reef
11L4#14
7L3#6
7L2#8
2L1 · trough#4
31Game pieces#36
BargeRed +12
36Cage & park24
36Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points0
174Total score175

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
484
#22
60.42.2
49.351.5
Auto16.0
Teleop37.9
End6.6
blue by 19.8
3314
#15
80.30.7
74.675.3
Auto19.8
Teleop47.9
End12.6
Second
1168
#50
48.92.2
47.249.4
Auto11.9
Teleop28.1
End8.9
blue by 3.4
555
#21
52.40.7
44.645.3
Auto13.2
Teleop31.5
End7.7
Third
4653
#53
38.42.2
38.440.7
Auto11.6
Teleop18.6
End8.2
blue by 10.9
1403
#29
49.30.7
40.040.7
Auto14.1
Teleop29.1
End6.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
89%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsEarned