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Red145
2537.9
48460.4
331480.3
Blue182
139162.3
167659.6
27249.1
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions181172100150200250145182

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
Teleop+23
Endgame+35
Fouls+37
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave6
7Coral scored#5
34Coral points27
37Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +27
15Coral scored#23
54Coral points81
2Processor algae#4
7Net algae#4
12Processor points24
28Net points16
40Algae points40
94Total teleop121
Reef
8L4#12
5L3#8
4L2#5
5L1 · trough#3
31Game pieces#36
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +37
0Foul points2
145Total score182

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3314
#15
80.31.3
75.874.5
Auto19.8
Teleop47.9
End12.6
red by 17.9
1391
#19
62.31.3
57.058.3
Auto12.8
Teleop40.9
End8.7
Second
484
#22
60.41.3
52.451.1
Auto16.0
Teleop37.9
End6.6
red by 0.8
1676
#16
59.61.3
56.157.5
Auto14.6
Teleop37.0
End8.0
Third
25
#41
37.91.3
36.234.9
Auto5.8
Teleop29.4
End2.6
blue by 11.2
272
#14
49.11.3
46.748.1
Auto6.8
Teleop31.1
End11.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
20%Coral oddsMissed29%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
90%Barge oddsEarned89%Barge oddsEarned