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Red158
434249.5
437346.9
1159.8
Blue116
1014328.6
272241.0
255446.8
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions159126050100200250300158116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+30Teleop
+42Endgame
+42Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave6
5Coral scored#4
23Coral points20
23Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +33
24Coral scored#14
85Coral points52
2Processor algae#4
6Net algae#3
12Processor points24
24Net points12
36Algae points36
121Total teleop88
Reef
12L4#6
8L3#5
6L2#5
3L1 · trough#2
37Game pieces#25
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +42
0Foul points0
158Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
11
#26
59.81.4
50.652.0
Auto11.6
Teleop40.2
End8.0
red by 12.9
2554
#17
46.80.2
41.041.2
Auto13.2
Teleop30.9
End2.8
Second
4342
#36
49.51.4
45.546.9
Auto7.8
Teleop36.1
End5.5
red by 8.5
2722
#44
41.00.2
46.546.7
Auto12.2
Teleop29.2
End-0.4
Third
4373
#18
46.91.4
40.842.2
Auto11.4
Teleop30.1
End5.5
red by 18.2
28.60.2
26.026.2
Auto5.9
Teleop20.3
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
22%Coral oddsMissed35%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
90%Barge oddsEarned10%Barge oddsMissed