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Red157
599241.4
10364.5
27249.1
Blue213
34180.3
22348.4
255446.8
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions163172140150180190200210157213

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+58
Endgame+56
Fouls+56
AutonomousBlue +8
0Leave9
4Coral scored#4
22Coral points21
22Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +50
18Coral scored#30
65Coral points109
4Processor algae#5
8Net algae#8
24Processor points30
32Net points32
56Algae points62
121Total teleop171
Reef
10L4#13
5L3#11
5L2#6
2L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#47
BargeRed +2
14Cage & park12
14Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +56
0Foul points0
157Total score213

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
103
#13
64.50.4
61.861.4
Auto8.7
Teleop50.4
End5.4
blue by 15.8
341
#1
80.32.9
78.180.9
Auto13.6
Teleop56.9
End9.8
Second
272
#14
49.10.4
48.147.7
Auto6.8
Teleop31.1
End11.2
red by 0.7
223
#52
48.42.9
39.642.4
Auto8.5
Teleop37.2
End2.7
Third
5992
#40
41.40.4
41.541.1
Auto6.6
Teleop34.2
End0.6
blue by 5.4
2554
#17
46.82.9
41.244.1
Auto13.2
Teleop30.9
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
69%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
17%Coral oddsEarned57%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
81%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsMissed