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Red183
70854.9
36569.4
140349.3
Blue155
180759.1
1014328.6
167659.6
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions168137100150200250183155

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+16Teleop
+26Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
9Leave0
4Coral scored#6
21Coral points29
30Total auto29
TeleoperatedRed +15
28Coral scored#24
99Coral points86
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#6
18Processor points12
20Net points24
38Algae points36
137Total teleop122
Reef
14L4#12
11L3#8
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#6
40Game pieces#38
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
2Foul points0
183Total score155

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
365
#4
69.40.2
57.457.6
Auto13.7
Teleop47.2
End8.5
red by 9.8
1676
#16
59.60.2
51.351.1
Auto14.6
Teleop37.0
End8.0
Second
708
#23
54.90.2
52.552.7
Auto11.3
Teleop35.7
End7.8
blue by 4.2
1807
#39
59.10.2
57.257.0
Auto10.6
Teleop42.6
End5.9
Third
1403
#29
49.30.2
41.541.7
Auto14.1
Teleop29.1
End6.0
red by 20.6
28.60.2
20.420.2
Auto5.9
Teleop20.3
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
65%Coral oddsEarned18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
87%Barge oddsEarned43%Barge oddsMissed