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Red176
167659.6
27249.1
164052.5
Blue205
253970.3
31658.0
192364.5
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions174210100150200250176205

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+41
Endgame+29
Fouls+29
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave9
7Coral scored#7
37Coral points35
37Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +34
21Coral scored#23
77Coral points81
2Processor algae#3
6Net algae#12
12Processor points18
24Net points48
36Algae points66
113Total teleop147
Reef
11L4#8
9L3#7
5L2#9
3L1 · trough#6
36Game pieces#45
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalBlue +29
0Foul points0
176Total score205

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1676
#16
59.60.4
59.259.6
Auto14.6
Teleop37.0
End8.0
blue by 10.7
2539
#10
70.30.3
69.669.9
Auto16.2
Teleop45.2
End8.9
Second
1640
#11
52.50.4
52.152.5
Auto11.8
Teleop33.8
End6.9
blue by 12.0
64.50.3
63.864.1
Auto20.8
Teleop42.0
End1.6
Third
272
#14
49.10.4
48.749.1
Auto6.8
Teleop31.1
End11.2
blue by 8.9
316
#20
58.00.3
57.357.6
Auto15.3
Teleop39.6
End3.0