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Red190
518156.0
540155.4
180759.1
Blue137
83462.6
259055.5
851364.6
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions184200100150250300190137

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
+41Teleop
+53Endgame
+53Fouls
AutonomousBlue +8
9Leave6
2Coral scored#4
10Coral points21
19Total auto27
TeleoperatedRed +49
31Coral scored#16
111Coral points56
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#7
18Processor points12
16Net points28
34Algae points40
145Total teleop96
Reef
16L4#6
7L3#7
6L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
40Game pieces#29
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +53
0Foul points0
190Total score137

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1807
#39
59.10.4
58.959.3
Auto10.6
Teleop42.6
End5.9
blue by 5.4
64.61.1
65.764.6
Auto20.5
Teleop35.6
End8.5
Second
56.00.4
55.756.2
Auto9.0
Teleop42.4
End4.6
blue by 6.6
834
#9
62.61.1
63.762.6
Auto14.6
Teleop38.6
End9.4
Third
5401
#25
55.40.4
55.255.6
Auto7.7
Teleop41.7
End6.0
blue by 0.1
2590
#27
55.51.1
56.655.5
Auto11.6
Teleop35.5
End8.4