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Red40
594832.5
473517.5
959316.8
Blue86
710230.7
513321.7
477522.6
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions69630501001502004086

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+42
Endgame+40
Fouls+46
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave9
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +39
6Coral scored#11
20Coral points41
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#4
6Processor points12
4Net points16
10Algae points28
30Total teleop69
Reef
3L4#5
2L3#2
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
9Game pieces#17
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +46
0Foul points6
40Total score86

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5948
#20
32.52.0
21.719.8
Auto4.7
Teleop25.5
End2.4
red by 1.8
7102
#16
30.71.6
24.326.0
Auto4.1
Teleop25.2
End1.5
Second
4735
#11
17.52.0
15.813.8
Auto2.1
Teleop11.9
End3.5
blue by 5.0
22.61.6
13.915.5
Auto3.3
Teleop18.5
End0.8
Third
9593
#26
16.82.0
17.515.6
Auto3.5
Teleop13.1
End0.2
blue by 4.9
5133
#13
21.72.7
14.116.8
Auto4.1
Teleop14.9
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsMissed29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsMissed