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Red74
435530.5
660814.3
473517.5
Blue58
588717.5
660616.4
951321.7
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8262020401001201401607458

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+22Teleop
+10Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave9
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +25
9Coral scored#4
32Coral points15
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#0
6Processor points6
8Net points0
14Algae points6
46Total teleop21
Reef
3L4#1
3L3#2
2L2#0
2L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#5
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
18Foul points12
74Total score58

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4355
#14
30.51.2
28.227.0
Auto5.5
Teleop21.7
End3.3
red by 8.8
9513
#30
21.70.8
18.617.8
Auto4.0
Teleop13.0
End4.7
Second
4735
#11
17.51.2
18.417.3
Auto2.1
Teleop11.9
End3.5
Level
17.50.5
15.615.1
Auto3.9
Teleop11.6
End2.0
Third
6608
#29
14.31.2
18.917.7
Auto2.8
Teleop10.8
End0.8
blue by 2.1
6606
#28
16.40.5
16.616.0
Auto3.2
Teleop10.8
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
58%Auto oddsMissed45%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsEarned