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Red110
670231.0
460315.2
710230.7
Blue77
393325.4
473517.5
660616.4
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1017620406012014016011077

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+19Teleop
+19Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave6
2Coral scored#1
12Coral points3
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +16
16Coral scored#12
56Coral points44
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
74Total teleop58
Reef
5L4#4
5L3#4
5L2#4
3L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#16
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
20Foul points6
110Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6702
#10
31.00.4
27.326.9
Auto4.7
Teleop24.6
End1.7
red by 5.6
3933
#31
25.40.7
25.124.4
Auto3.9
Teleop20.6
End0.9
Second
7102
#16
30.70.3
32.231.9
Auto4.1
Teleop25.2
End1.5
red by 13.2
4735
#11
17.50.9
18.017.1
Auto2.1
Teleop11.9
End3.5
Third
4603
#24
15.20.4
16.115.7
Auto3.6
Teleop8.7
End2.9
blue by 1.2
6606
#28
16.40.7
18.317.6
Auto3.2
Teleop10.8
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsEarned31%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsMissed